Stock Market Performance
Strong performance year-to-date
Driven by AI enthusiasm and anticipated Fed rate cuts
Outperformed historical election-year trends
Recommendation: Reallocate profits from AI stocks to broaden portfolio
Economic Growth
First-quarter GDP weaker than expected (1.4%)
Consumer spending slowed down
Corporate investment increased
Forecast GDP growth of 1.7% for 2024, rising to 2% in Q4 2024 and 2025
Labor Market
Slower job growth in June (206,000)
Unemployment rate increased to 4.1%
Wage growth moderating
Consumer Economy
Mixed signals: weak sentiment and retail spending, but strong housing market recovery potential
Retail sales growth slowing down
Housing market sluggish due to high mortgage rates
Monetary Policy
Fed paused rate hikes in July 2023
Inflation moderating, but still above 2% target
Anticipation of rate cuts later in the year
Historical Market Performance
Strong mid-year performance historically predicts strong full-year performance
2024 marks the first double-digit mid-year gain in a presidential election year since 1980
Average full-year gain after a double-digit mid-year gain is 23.3%
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